USA 4–1 Paraguay: World Cup 2026 Group D Match Report
Group Stage · Group D · Matchday 1
USA
4 – 1
Paraguay
FINAL
USA claimed all three points by an emphatic 3-goal margin, a result that was expected given the pre-match ELO ratings. USA entered this fixture as favorites.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave USA a 76% chance of winning versus 24% for Paraguay.
Today's Matches & Predictions
Goalscorers
- Folarin Balogun (USA)
- Gio Reyna (USA)
- Mauricio (Paraguay)
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 1890 | ±0 | 1890 | #15 | 2.3% |
| Paraguay | 1690 | ±0 | 1690 | #34 | 1.8% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Group D Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA ✓ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Australia ✓ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| 2 | Turkiye ✓ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| 4 | Paraguay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
✓ = currently qualifying for Round of 32
Next Up
- USA vs Australia — 2026-06-19 (Seattle)
- Paraguay vs Turkiye — 2026-06-19 (Santa Clara)
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.