USA 1–4 Belgium: World Cup 2026 Round of 16 Match Report
Round of 16
USA
1 – 4
Belgium
FINAL
Belgium won the Round of 16 tie by an emphatic 3 goals, a result that went largely to script — the ELO model rated Belgium 64% favourites going in, and they duly delivered. They advance to the next round; for USA, the World Cup journey ends here.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave USA a 36% chance of winning versus 64% for Belgium.
Today's Matches & Predictions
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 1890 | ▲ +36 | 1926 | #13 | 2.4% |
| Belgium | 1990 | ▼ -5 | 1985 | #9 | 2.5% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.