Uruguay 0–1 Spain: World Cup 2026 Group H Match Report
Group Stage · Group H · Matchday 3
Uruguay
0 – 1
Spain
FINAL
Spain took all three points by a single goal, a result that went largely to script — the ELO model rated Spain 65% favourites going in, and they duly delivered.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave Uruguay a 35% chance of winning versus 65% for Spain.
Today's Matches & Predictions
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay | 1950 | ▼ -63 | 1887 | #17 | 2.3% |
| Spain | 2060 | ▲ +5 | 2065 | #5 | 2.7% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Group H Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain ✓ | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 2 | Cabo Verde ✓ | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
| 3 | Uruguay | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 |
✓ = currently qualifying for Round of 32
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.