Turkiye 3–2 USA: World Cup 2026 Group D Match Report
Group Stage · Group D · Matchday 3
Turkiye
3 – 2
USA
FINAL
Turkiye claimed all three points by a narrow one-goal margin, a result that was something of a surprise given the pre-match ELO ratings. Turkiye entered this fixture as underdogs.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave Turkiye a 40% chance of winning versus 60% for USA.
Today's Matches & Predictions
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkiye | 1820 | ▼ -36 | 1784 | #25 | 2.0% |
| USA | 1890 | ▲ +18 | 1908 | #15 | 2.3% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Group D Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA ✓ | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 2 | Australia ✓ | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 4 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Turkiye | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
✓ = currently qualifying for Round of 32
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.