Turkiye 0–1 Paraguay: World Cup 2026 Group D Match Report
Group Stage · Group D · Matchday 2
Turkiye
0 – 1
Paraguay
FINAL
Paraguay claimed all three points by a narrow one-goal margin, a result that was something of a surprise given the pre-match ELO ratings. Paraguay entered this fixture as underdogs.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave Turkiye a 68% chance of winning versus 32% for Paraguay.
Today's Matches & Predictions
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkiye | 1820 | ▼ -44 | 1776 | #26 | 2.0% |
| Paraguay | 1690 | ▼ -25 | 1665 | #35 | 1.8% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Group D Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA ✓ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia ✓ | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0 | 3 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Turkiye | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
✓ = currently qualifying for Round of 32
Next Up
- Turkiye vs USA — 2026-06-25 (Los Angeles)
- Paraguay vs Australia — 2026-06-25 (Santa Clara)
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.