Sweden 5–1 Tunisia: World Cup 2026 Group F Match Report
Group Stage · Group F · Matchday 1
Sweden
5 – 1
Tunisia
FINAL
Sweden claimed all three points by an emphatic 4-goal margin, a result that was something of a surprise given the pre-match ELO ratings. Sweden entered this fixture as favorites.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave Sweden a 57% chance of winning versus 43% for Tunisia.
Today's Matches & Predictions
Goalscorers
- Yasin Ayari (Sweden)
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 1840 | ▲ +48 | 1888 | #17 | 2.3% |
| Tunisia | 1790 | ▼ -48 | 1742 | #28 | 1.9% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Group F Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden ✓ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Japan ✓ | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 2 | Netherlands ✓ | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
✓ = currently qualifying for Round of 32
Next Up
- Sweden vs Netherlands — 2026-06-20 (Houston)
- Tunisia vs Japan — 2026-06-21 (Monterrey)
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.