South Africa 0–1 Canada: World Cup 2026 Round of 32 Match Report
Round of 32
South Africa
0 – 1
Canada
FINAL
Canada won the Round of 32 tie by a single goal, a result that went largely to script — the ELO model rated Canada 69% favourites going in, and they duly delivered. They advance to the next round; for South Africa, the World Cup journey ends here.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave South Africa a 31% chance of winning versus 69% for Canada.
Today's Matches & Predictions
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 1560 | ▲ +33 | 1593 | #41 | 1.6% |
| Canada | 1700 | ▲ +27 | 1727 | #30 | 1.9% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.