Portugal 0–1 Spain: World Cup 2026 Round of 16 Match Report
Round of 16
Portugal
0 – 1
Spain
FINAL
Spain won the Round of 16 tie by a single goal, edging a contest the ratings had as near even (57% to win), so the three points could comfortably have gone the other way. They advance to the next round; for Portugal, the World Cup journey ends here.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave Portugal a 43% chance of winning versus 57% for Spain.
Today's Matches & Predictions
Goalscorers
- Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain)
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 2010 | ▲ +7 | 2017 | #7 | 2.6% |
| Spain | 2060 | ▲ +21 | 2081 | #4 | 2.8% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.