Portugal 2–1 Croatia: World Cup 2026 Round of 32 Match Report
Round of 32
Portugal
2 – 1
Croatia
FINAL
Portugal won the Round of 32 tie by a single goal, a result that went largely to script — the ELO model rated Portugal 60% favourites going in, and they duly delivered. They advance to the next round; for Croatia, the World Cup journey ends here.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave Portugal a 60% chance of winning versus 40% for Croatia.
Today's Matches & Predictions
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 2010 | ▲ +7 | 2017 | #7 | 2.6% |
| Croatia | 1940 | ▼ -27 | 1913 | #15 | 2.3% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.