New Zealand 1–5 Belgium: World Cup 2026 Group G Match Report
Group Stage · Group G · Matchday 3
New Zealand
1 – 5
Belgium
FINAL
Belgium took all three points by an emphatic 4 goals, a result that went largely to script — the ELO model rated Belgium 90% favourites going in, and they duly delivered.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave New Zealand a 10% chance of winning versus 90% for Belgium.
Today's Matches & Predictions
Goalscorers
- Elijah Just (New Zealand)
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 1600 | ▼ -5 | 1595 | #42 | 1.6% |
| Belgium | 1990 | ▼ -29 | 1961 | #9 | 2.5% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Group G Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico ✓ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | South Africa ✓ | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Korea Republic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Czechia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
✓ = currently qualifying for Round of 32
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.