Norway 1–4 France: World Cup 2026 Group I Match Report
Group Stage · Group I · Matchday 3
Norway
1 – 4
France
FINAL
France took all three points by an emphatic 3 goals, a result that went largely to script — the ELO model rated France 88% favourites going in, and they duly delivered.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave Norway a 12% chance of winning versus 88% for France.
Today's Matches & Predictions
Goalscorers
- Erling Haaland (Norway)
- Kylian Mbappé (France)
- Ousmane Dembélé (France)
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 1760 | ▲ +57 | 1817 | #21 | 2.1% |
| France | 2100 | ▲ +15 | 2115 | #2 | 2.9% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Group I Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France ✓ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 9 |
| 2 | Norway ✓ | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Iraq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 0 |
✓ = currently qualifying for Round of 32
Next Up
- Norway vs France — 2026-06-27 (Boston)
- France vs Norway — 2026-06-27 (Boston)
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.