Netherlands 3–4 Morocco: World Cup 2026 Round of 32 Match Report
Round of 32
Netherlands
3 – 4
Morocco
FINAL
Morocco won the Round of 32 tie by a single goal, a notable upset: pre-match ratings gave Morocco just a 35% chance, making this one of the standout results of the round. They advance to the next round; for Netherlands, the World Cup journey ends here.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave Netherlands a 65% chance of winning versus 35% for Morocco.
Today's Matches & Predictions
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 2020 | ▼ -2 | 2018 | #6 | 2.6% |
| Morocco | 1910 | ▲ +97 | 2007 | #8 | 2.6% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.