Netherlands 2–2 Japan: World Cup 2026 Group F Match Report
Group Stage · Group F · Matchday 1
Netherlands
2 – 2
Japan
FINAL
A hard-fought draw, with both sides sharing the spoils. The result leaves the Group F standings tightly contested heading into the remaining fixtures.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave Netherlands a 69% chance of winning versus 31% for Japan.
Today's Matches & Predictions
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 2020 | ▼ -11 | 2009 | #8 | 2.6% |
| Japan | 1880 | ▲ +11 | 1891 | #16 | 2.3% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Group F Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands ✓ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 2 | Sweden ✓ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| 2 | Tunisia ✓ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| 4 | Japan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
✓ = currently qualifying for Round of 32
Next Up
- Netherlands vs Sweden — 2026-06-20 (Houston)
- Japan vs Tunisia — 2026-06-21 (Monterrey)
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.