Mexico 2–3 England: World Cup 2026 Round of 16 Match Report
Round of 16
Mexico
2 – 3
England
FINAL
England won the Round of 16 tie by a single goal, a result that went largely to script — the ELO model rated England 73% favourites going in, and they duly delivered. They advance to the next round; for Mexico, the World Cup journey ends here.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave Mexico a 27% chance of winning versus 73% for England.
Today's Matches & Predictions
Goalscorers
- Julián Quiñones (Mexico)
- Harry Kane (England)
- Jude Bellingham (England)
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 1900 | ▲ +56 | 1956 | #11 | 2.4% |
| England | 2070 | ▲ +37 | 2107 | #3 | 2.8% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.