Japan 1–1 Sweden: World Cup 2026 Group F Match Report
Group Stage · Group F · Matchday 3
Japan
1 – 1
Sweden
FINAL
A hard-fought draw, with both sides sharing the spoils. The result leaves the Group F standings tightly contested heading into the remaining fixtures.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave Japan a 56% chance of winning versus 44% for Sweden.
Today's Matches & Predictions
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 1880 | ▲ +39 | 1919 | #15 | 2.4% |
| Sweden | 1840 | ▲ +17 | 1857 | #18 | 2.2% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Group F Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands ✓ | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Japan ✓ | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 5 |
| 3 | Sweden | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
✓ = currently qualifying for Round of 32
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.