Germany 4–5 Paraguay: World Cup 2026 Round of 32 Match Report
Round of 32
Germany
4 – 5
Paraguay
FINAL
Paraguay won the Round of 32 tie by a single goal, a notable upset: pre-match ratings gave Paraguay just a 12% chance, making this one of the standout results of the round. They advance to the next round; for Germany, the World Cup journey ends here.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave Germany a 88% chance of winning versus 12% for Paraguay.
Today's Matches & Predictions
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 2030 | ▼ -88 | 1942 | #12 | 2.4% |
| Paraguay | 1690 | ▲ +69 | 1759 | #26 | 2.0% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.