France 0–2 Spain: World Cup 2026 Semi-Final Match Report
Semi-Final
France
0 – 2
Spain
FINAL
Spain won the Semi-Final tie by a two-goal margin, a notable upset: pre-match ratings gave Spain just a 44% chance, making this one of the standout results of the round. They advance to the next round; for France, the World Cup journey ends here.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave France a 56% chance of winning versus 44% for Spain.
Today's Matches & Predictions
Goalscorers
- Kylian Mbappé (France)
- Ousmane Dembélé (France)
- Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain)
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 2100 | ▲ +82 | 2182 | #2 | 3.0% |
| Spain | 2060 | ▲ +69 | 2129 | #3 | 2.9% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.