Spain 2–1 Belgium: World Cup 2026 Quarter-Final Match Report
Quarter-Final
Spain
2 – 1
Belgium
FINAL
Spain won the Quarter-Final tie by a single goal, a result that went largely to script — the ELO model rated Spain 60% favourites going in, and they duly delivered. They advance to the next round; for Belgium, the World Cup journey ends here.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave Spain a 60% chance of winning versus 40% for Belgium.
Today's Matches & Predictions
Goalscorers
- Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain)
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 2060 | ▲ +46 | 2106 | #4 | 2.8% |
| Belgium | 1990 | ▲ +39 | 2029 | #6 | 2.6% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.