England 4–2 Croatia: World Cup 2026 Group L Match Report
Group Stage · Group L · Matchday 1
England
4 – 2
Croatia
FINAL
England claimed all three points by a comfortable two-goal margin, a result that was expected given the pre-match ELO ratings. England entered this fixture as favorites.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave England a 68% chance of winning versus 32% for Croatia.
Today's Matches & Predictions
Goalscorers
- Harry Kane (England)
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 2070 | ±0 | 2070 | #3 | 2.7% |
| Croatia | 1940 | ±0 | 1940 | #10 | 2.4% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Group L Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England ✓ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Ghana ✓ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| 2 | Panama ✓ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| 4 | Croatia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
✓ = currently qualifying for Round of 32
Next Up
- England vs Ghana — 2026-06-23 (Toronto)
- Croatia vs Panama — 2026-06-23 (Dallas)
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.