Ecuador 2–1 Germany: World Cup 2026 Group E Match Report
Group Stage · Group E · Matchday 3
Ecuador
2 – 1
Germany
FINAL
Ecuador claimed all three points by a narrow one-goal margin, a result that was something of a surprise given the pre-match ELO ratings. Ecuador entered this fixture as underdogs.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave Ecuador a 12% chance of winning versus 88% for Germany.
Today's Matches & Predictions
Goalscorers
- Deniz Undav (Germany)
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecuador | 1680 | ▲ +17 | 1697 | #33 | 1.8% |
| Germany | 2030 | ▼ -38 | 1992 | #8 | 2.5% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Group E Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany ✓ | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 | Ivory Coast ✓ | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 4 |
| 4 | Curacao | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
✓ = currently qualifying for Round of 32
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.