Croatia 2–1 Ghana: World Cup 2026 Group L Match Report
Group Stage · Group L · Matchday 3
Croatia
2 – 1
Ghana
FINAL
Croatia took all three points by a single goal, a result that went largely to script — the ELO model rated Croatia 79% favourites going in, and they duly delivered.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave Croatia a 79% chance of winning versus 21% for Ghana.
Today's Matches & Predictions
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 1940 | ▼ -19 | 1921 | #13 | 2.4% |
| Ghana | 1710 | ▲ +49 | 1759 | #28 | 2.0% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Group L Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England ✓ | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 2 | Croatia ✓ | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +0 | 6 |
| 3 | Ghana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 4 |
| 4 | Panama | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
✓ = currently qualifying for Round of 32
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.