Brazil 2–1 Japan: World Cup 2026 Round of 32 Match Report
Round of 32
Brazil
2 – 1
Japan
FINAL
Brazil won the Round of 32 tie by a single goal, a result that went largely to script — the ELO model rated Brazil 76% favourites going in, and they duly delivered. They advance to the next round; for Japan, the World Cup journey ends here.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave Brazil a 76% chance of winning versus 24% for Japan.
Today's Matches & Predictions
Goalscorers
- Vinicius Junior (Brazil)
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 2080 | ▲ +20 | 2100 | #3 | 2.8% |
| Japan | 1880 | ▲ +22 | 1902 | #16 | 2.3% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.