Australia 3–5 Egypt: World Cup 2026 Round of 32 Match Report
Round of 32
Australia
3 – 5
Egypt
FINAL
Egypt won the Round of 32 tie by a two-goal margin, edging a contest the ratings had as near even (47% to win), so the three points could comfortably have gone the other way. They advance to the next round; for Australia, the World Cup journey ends here.
Pre-match win probabilities based on ELO ratings gave Australia a 53% chance of winning versus 47% for Egypt.
Today's Matches & Predictions
ELO Rating Impact
This result has updated both teams' ELO ratings, which feed directly into the win probability model for future matches.
| Team | Pre-Match | Change | New ELO | Global Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 1830 | ▼ -49 | 1781 | #24 | 2.0% |
| Egypt | 1810 | ▲ +74 | 1884 | #18 | 2.3% |
ELO ratings updated using FIFA K-factor 60 with goal-difference multiplier. Changes reflect match result vs pre-match expectation.
Follow all remaining matches live with real-time ELO rankings on FootUps.